Part-II
All this had left the Pakistan Army badly bruised. Its ego had been hit and it needed to take an apparently strident position against an increasingly impatient and even imperious US. In the US there were increasing signs of a re-evaluation of its relations with Pakistan with several think tanks discussing the best way of Pakistan and predicting a dismal future. But if one asks whether this will mark a permanent breach in relations between the two countries, then the answer has to be, No.
Over the years, obsessed with India and the desire to seek equality with India, Pakistan’s leaders had perfected the art of handling the US, preserving and furthering its core interests, essentially by using the advantages that geography has provided. The Pakistan-US romance began in the tense years of the Cold War. Since then, though the ardour has cooled at times, it has renewed with fervour periodically.
While Pakistan has been consistently useful to the US in the protection of its global interests, the US has not minded if Pakistan occasionally had pot shots at its pro-Soviet neighbour. US and British diplomats and emissaries went out of their way in the 1960s to push India to a deal with Pakistan on Kashmir that was designed to favour its ally.
In the 1970s there was US anger during the 1971 war and again after the 1974 nuclear test without understanding Indian interests. The 1980s were the years of the Afghan jihad, during which period the US President repeatedly certified to Congress that Pakistan was not making the nuclear bomb. The 1990s were essentially Clinton years a period of indifference as far as the Americans were concerned while Pakistan had got its nuclear black market well organised.
Post Kargil, Pakistan was in trouble but only till September 11, 2001. Thereafter, once again, as in the case, recent sins were forgiven and Pakistan quickly became a stalwart ally of the allies. The relationship is at present at its lowest ebb in many years. This may not last long simply because Pakistan too has many limitations and despite the present bravado cannot do without the US.
The latest leaked US military and NATO report that the Taliban backed by Pakistan was poised to take charge of Afghanistan once foreign forces withdraw has other aspects to it. It mentions that Pakistan was aware that senior Taliban representatives, like Nasiruddin Haqqani lived in the vicinity of ISI headquarters in Islamabad. The report also adds that 27000 interrogations of more than 400 captured Taliban, Al Qaeda and other terrorists establishes a clear link between the ISI and the Taliban. This may be the first authoritative revelation.
Sooner or later, Pakistan will make moves to seek normalcy with the US. Pakistan has for decades boxed above its weight by trying to militarily (including sub-conventional jihadi options) take on a larger, stronger India with a greater depth, militarily, economically and geographically. During the Cold War the US was willing to underwrite this confrontation. These kind of military oriented regimes and romances survive only so long as there is military congruity between the two powers.
Post 2001 and post economic reforms in India this equation has changed between Washington and Islamabad and between Washington and New Delhi. Today Pakistan’s economy is in a mess and it has few friends who will be able to take on the burden, not even China. Saudi Arabia too may not provide gratis assistance.
 This time around, Pakistani Generals may have overplayed their hand. In the last year, the US has been able to reduce its dependence on Pakistan for logistic support to NATO that was routed through Pakistan. It has also seen Pakistani double dealing and intransigence with regard to the US-led War on Terror. This is happening, at a time when Pakistan’s chief USP was its willingness and ability to assist the US effort. The blackmail has gone too far and this will have to stop but it is election year in the US. This means that the US too will need to accommodate some of Pakistan’s positions.
In fact, drone attacks have resumed and these are early signs. The US Pakistan relationship may not have a great future and may remain an arrangement of convenience. (ANI)
Attn: News Editors/News Desks: The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Vikram Sood, former R & AW Secretary